Australia in the World

Ep. 141: Economic security, from the private sector

In an era where “economic security is national security”, arguably the most important perspective in how governments ought to intervene in the economy--in ways to maximise benefits and minimise costs--is that of the private sector. With that in mind, Darren welcomes Dr Huw McKay to the podcast to hear a business perspective on the economic security agenda and geoeconomics. Huw has just returned to Australia after living in Singapore for many years where he worked as Chief Economist at BHP. Prior to that he was an Executive Director at Westpac Bank and also spent time at the Commonwealth Treasury on secondment during the financial crisis. He holds a PhD in economics and economic history from ANU and his book, The Strategic Logic of China’s Economy, was published this year. The agenda for this conversation will be familiar to those thinking about economic security – how do we define it, is it simply all about China, what principles should guide industrial policy, how do we manage the weaponisation of supply chains and chokepoints, how can we counter economic coercion, and how can the rules-based order be preserved? As the Australian government builds out its “Future Made in Australia” agenda, this is exactly the type of conversation that is needed to inform the debate.

Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Walter Colnaghi and theme music composed by Rory Stenning.

Relevant links

Huw McKay (LinkedIn): https://au.linkedin.com/in/huw-mckay-6ab582ab

Huw McKay, The Strategic Logic of China’s Economy (2024): https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-031-47229-9

Hugh White, The China Choice: Why America Should Share Power (2012): https://www.blackincbooks.com.au/books/china-choice

Graeme Snooks, The dynamic society: Explaining the sources of global change (1996) (Goodreads): https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/1263694.The_Dynamic_Society

The rest is history (podcast): https://www.goalhangerpodcasts.com/the-rest-is-history

Huberman Lab (podcast): Esther Perel: How to Find, Build & Maintain Healthy Romantic Relationships: https://www.hubermanlab.com/episode/esther-perel-how-to-find-build-maintain-healthy-romantic-relationships

Ep. 140: India post-election; Quad cooperation

India has only been on the periphery of Darren’s professional vision since the dramatic headlines last year surrounding the killing of a Sikh activist in Canada and an indictment alleging a similar assassination attempt in the US. But 2024 has been a big year for India with its national election and PM Modi winning a 3rd term, but with a far smaller margin of victory than most expected. And with the Quad meeting recently being held in Joe Biden’s home state of Delaware, now is a good time to catch up on the world’s most populous country. To do that Darren invited back Ian Hall. Ian is a Professor of international relations at Griffith University and an Academic Fellow at the Australia India Institute. Darren asks what the election and post-election tell us about the trajectory of India’s democracy. They discuss whether India ought to be modelled as a ‘normal’ rising power and the nature (and limit) of China as the core organising principle of Western cooperation with India, with a focus on the Quad. Finally, they discuss the Indian diaspora in Australia.

Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Corbin Duncan and theme music composed by Rory Stenning.

Relevant links

Ian Hall (biography): https://experts.griffith.edu.au/18600-ian-hall

Ian Hall, Modi and the Reinvention of Indian Foreign Policy (Bristol U Press, 2021): https://bristoluniversitypress.co.uk/modi-and-the-reinvention-of-indian-foreign-policy

Grand Tamasha (podcast): https://carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/interpreting-india

Global India (podcast): https://www.brookings.edu/tags/global-india-podcast/

Vijay Gokhale, The Long Game: How the Chinese Negotiate with India (Penguin India, 2021): https://www.penguin.co.in/book/the-long-game/

Steve Randy Waldman, “Abundance is overcapacity”, Interfluidity Drafts (blog), 17 Sep 2024: https://drafts.interfluidity.com/2024/09/17/abundance-is-overcapacity/index.html

Ep. 139: Chronic versus acute threats to US democracy; Fukuyama’s “last man”

In the spirit of trying to channel his obsession with the US election in a (somewhat) productive way, Darren welcomes back Andrew Phillips from the University of Queensland to talk through the extent to which Trump is a ‘normal’ political candidate versus an existential threat to US democracy. Along the way, Darren cannot resist the temptation to introduce Francis Fukuyama’s “last man” model of political resistance, often overlooked when his “End of History” thesis is discussed.

Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Walter Colnaghi and theme music composed by Rory Stenning.

Relevant links

Sohrab Ahmari, “There is an intellectual sickness on the American right”, The New Statesman, 11 September 2024: https://www.newstatesman.com/world/americas/north-america/us/2024/09/there-is-an-intellectual-sickness-on-the-american-right

Andrew Dougall, Mediatizing the Nation, Ordering the World, Oxford University Press, 2024: https://global.oup.com/academic/product/mediatizing-the-nation-ordering-the-world-9780198882114?lang=en&cc=ru

Zhang, F.J. “Political endorsement by Nature and trust in scientific expertise during COVID-19”, Nat Hum Behav 7, 696–706 (2023): https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-023-01537-5

Tyler Cowen, “How public intellectuals can extend their shelf lives”, Marginal Revolution, 6 February 2020: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/02/how-public-intellectuals-can-extend-their-shelf-lives.html

Miss Americana (documentary): https://www.netflix.com/au/title/81028336

The Ezra Klein Show, “On Children, Meaning, Media and Psychedelics”, 3 September 2024: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/03/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-jia-tolentino.html

The Ezra Klein Show, “Zadie Smith on Populists, Frauds and Flip Phones”, 17 September 2024: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/17/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-zadie-smith.html

Linkin Park, “The Emptiness Machine” (Official Music Video): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SRXH9AbT280

The Deep Life by Cal Newport (podcast): https://www.thedeeplife.com/listen/

Ep. 138: Pacific Islands Forum: Policing, Taiwan and (always) geopolitics

Stephen Dziedzic of the ABC recently reported from the Pacific Islands Forum leaders retreat in Tonga. He joins Darren to unpack a very interesting meeting, focusing in particular on the Pacific Policing Initiative (and PM Albanese’s discussions with US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell, unintentionally recorded on camera) and a reference to Taiwan included in the original communique that was subsequently removed after Beijing forcefully objected (with another interesting exchange caught on camera).

Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Corbin Duncan and theme music composed by Rory Stenning.

Relevant links

Stephen Dziedzic, “Pacific Islands leaders endorse regional policing initiative in strategic victory for Australia”, ABC News, 28 August: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-08-28/vanuatu-melanesia-officials-warn-policing-could-block-china/104277614

Stephen Dziedzic, “Anthony Albanese caught on camera joking about Pacific Policing Initiative with top US official Kurt Campbell”, ABC News, 29 August: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-08-29/albanese-top-us-official-filmed-in-private-chat-pacific/104283976

Stephen Dziedzic, “Pacific Islands Forum says error to blame for Taiwan reference in communique that angered China”, ABC News, 2 September: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-09-02/pacific-islands-forum-meeting-taiwan-reference-china-ambassador/104299186

John Le Carré, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy (novel): https://www.penguin.com.au/authors/john-le-carre

Odd Lots (Podcast), “How the White House Thinks About Economic Security”, 15 August: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-15/white-house-advisor-daleep-singh-on-economic-security?srnd=oddlots

Ep. 137: One year of Australia's new international development policy

One year ago, the Albanese Labor government launched the “New International Development Policy”. Darren invites back Bridi Rice, CEO of the Canberra-based Development Intelligence Lab, to assess where the policy stands 12 months in. They review the initial logic of the policy and discuss the role of Development Partnership Plans, the first two (for PNG and Indonesia) having been published. The discussion returns to the topic of integrating development practice and foreign policy, with the Falepili Union between Australia and Tuvalu used as an example. Darren also seeks Bridi’s views on “non-traditional” development policies like Taiwan and AUKUS!

 

Correction: The statistics in the think tank report are “Australia spends approximately $64b per year on foreign affairs, defence, development and intelligence. The total annual turnover among think tanks is around $64m". Bridi said $70b/$70m on the recording.

 

Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Walter Colnaghi and theme music composed by Rory Stenning.

Relevant links

DFAT “New International Development Policy” (2023): https://www.dfat.gov.au/development/new-international-development-policy

DFAT, Australia’s – Papua New Guinea Development Partnership Plan 2024 – 2029: https://www.dfat.gov.au/publications/development/australias-papua-new-guinea-development-partnership-plan-2024-2029

DFAT, Australia – Indonesia Development Partnership Plan 2024-2028, https://www.dfat.gov.au/publications/development/australia-indonesia-development-partnership-plan-2024-2028

The Readout (podcast), “The Hon Pat Conroy x Australia's International Development Policy Anniversary Event”, 22 August 2024: https://www.devintelligencelab.com/readout/s6-patconroy

William Leben and Bridi Rice, “Australia’s strategic policy think tank landscape”, June 2024: https://www.devintelligencelab.com/analyses/australias-strategic-policy-think-tank-landscape

William Barton (composer): https://anam.com.au/theanamset/composers/williambarton

Theodore Ell, Lebanon Days: Memories of an ancient land through economic meltdown, a revolution of hope and surviving the 2020 Beirut explosion, Allen & Unwin: https://www.allenandunwin.com/browse/book/Theodore-Ell-Lebanon-Days-9781922928054

Ep. 136: Harris, Trump, the media and democracy

It is impossible to look away from US politics at the moment, and so Darren cannot help but keep his focus on the presidential election. Yet beyond the horse race are larger questions about the health of democracy in the US and indeed around the world, given the pressures democratic systems everywhere are facing. Trump’s unconventional (to say the least) political conduct reveals the seams or weaknesses in democratic systems that might have been difficult to see clearly in times of stability. The role of the media is one such example. While voters have been saying for months that Biden’s age is a problem, the relative silence in mainstream media on the issue (at least until after the first debate) arguably did not serve the interests of US democracy.

To unpack this issue and many others besides, Darren is joined by Eliza Harvey. Eliza is the Executive Producer of the ABC panel discussion program Q+A, having first joined the ABC as a cadet in the mid-2000s and worked in many roles in and around journalism and the media ever since. She is also a US politics junkie, situating her ideally to discuss the current dynamics in the campaign, but also larger questions about the health of US democracy (and how we measure it), and the role played by the media and the public in keeping democracies strong. In a conversation recorded on 1 August, the two also venture predictions for Harris’ Vice-Presidential pick, which will be made known within 24 hours of this episode being published!

Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Corbin Duncan and theme music composed by Rory Stenning.

Relevant links

Careers in International Affairs Panel (AIIA, ACT Branch), 13 August 2024, 5:30pm at University of Canberra: https://aiiaact.glueup.com/event/careers-in-international-affairs-panel-113718/

Q+A (ABC TV show): https://www.abc.net.au/qanda 

Claire Keegan, Small Things Like These (book): https://www.allenandunwin.com/browse/book/Claire-Keegan-Small-Things-Like-These-9780571368709

Boy Swallows Universe (TV series): https://www.netflix.com/au/title/81449940

YR (weather app): https://www.yr.no/en  

Ep. 135: Political decay or democratic renewal? (Harris-Biden 'emergency' episode)

Just in case you needed one more 'emergency' politics podcast in the wake of the news that President Biden will not contest the US presidential election, and that it appears overwhelmingly likely that Vice President Harris will be nominated by the Democratic Party, Darren is joined by the ABC's Stephen Dziedzic to give their reactions, both personal and professional, on these remarkable events. 

Is the US undergoing inexorable political decay, or can American democracy renew itself?

Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Walter Colnaghi and theme music composed by Rory Stenning.

Relevant links

Sinica (podcast), Adam Tooze on the U.S., China, the Energy Transition — and Saying the Unsayable, 4 July 2024: https://sinica.substack.com/p/adam-tooze-on-the-us-china-the-energy 

Ep. 134: Debating the future of Australia-China relations

China’s Premier Li Qiang successfully visited Australia last month. The loan of two more pandas captured headlines, but if one looks closely at how the visit unfolded it’s clear Australia faces a very complex strategic landscape. The Albanese government clearly wants to maintain a stabilised relationship with China under the PM’s manta “cooperative where we can, disagree where we must, and engage in the national interest”.  But what are the benefits and costs of that strategy, and are the trade-offs worth it?

Darren is joined once again by Dr Ben Herscovitch of the ANU for a conversation that lays out alternative framings for the choices the Australian government is, and is not, making in how it manages the China bilateral, and whether these choices are in the national interest.

A little while ago the podcast crossed 500,000 lifetime downloads! Thanks to all of you for giving up your time to listen.

Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Corbin Duncan and theme music composed by Rory Stenning.

Relevant links

Noah Barkin LinkedIn post on German Economy Minister Habeck’s visit to China: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7210557349697122304/

“A Sustainable Economic Partnership for Partnership for Australia and China”, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research, Crawford School of Public Policy, ANU, May 2024: https://eaber.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/A-Sustainable-Economic-Partnership-for-Australia-and-China.pdf

Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, “Statement regarding recent incidents in the South China Sea”, 18 June 2024: https://www.dfat.gov.au/news/media-release/statement-regarding-recent-incidents-south-china-sea

Darren Lim and John Ikenberry, “China and the logic of illiberal hegemony”, Security Studies: (ungated) https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4244377  || (gated) https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09636412.2023.2178963

Jennifer Hewett, “The contradictions in Australia’s China policy”, Australian Financial Review, 12 June 2024: https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/the-contradictions-in-australia-s-china-policy-20240612-p5jl66

Deutschland 83 (TV series): https://tv.apple.com/au/show/deutschland-83/umc.cmc.4tlfhbbwsfeijwbe74so97qv6

Derisky Business (podcast): https://www.cnas.org/publications/podcast/everyone-loves-tariffs

“Epistemic humility” mug on Etsy: https://www.etsy.com/au/listing/1751474343/epistemic-humility-ceramic-mug

Ep. 133: What might “cooperate with China where we can” actually mean?

Mike Pezzullo recently said that “the likelihood of conflict in this decade has been about 10 per cent, which is meaningful enough to plan for and indeed to be concerned about”. If Pezzullo’s assessment is correct, that means there is a 90 per cent chance that conflict will not happen. What is Australia’s plan for that (likely) scenario? This episode is about that 90% world, where Australia’s relationship with China will still matter greatly, as Beijing’s behaviour influences many of our interests, not just geopolitics and national security.

How might Australia consider thinking about a cooperative agenda with the PRC? In the words of PM Albanese, his government’s approach is to “co-operate with China where we can, disagree where we must and engage in our national interest”. Where can we cooperate, especially given the deep freeze in political relations that the two countries are only now climbing out of? What does engagement in the national interest mean given the extent to which China can affect many things we care about?

Darren is joined in this conversation by Dr Paul Hubbard. Paul is trained as an economist, first joining the Australian Public Service in 2006, and was sent from there to the ANU as a Sir Roland Wilson PhD Scholar in 2014.  More recently, in his capacity as a National Government Fellow at the ANU, Paul led a small team to produce a report - "A Sustainable Economic Partnership for Australia and China" that was launched in May. The report proposes an agenda for how Canberra and Beijing can take their economic relationship forward, and the two discuss that in the context of the broader question of what it means to develop a cooperative agenda with China and how should we think about the constraints imposed by geopolitics on that work?

Note: the report reflects the views of the ANU research team, and Paul’s comments in this episode are in an unofficial capacity as an expert on the Chinese economy, and do not represent the views of the Australian Government or its agencies.

Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Walter Colnaghi and theme music composed by Rory Stenning.

Relevant links

“A Sustainable Economic Partnership for Partnership for Australia and China”, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research, Crawford School of Public Policy, ANU, May 2024: https://eaber.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/A-Sustainable-Economic-Partnership-for-Australia-and-China.pdf

Partnership for Change: Australia–China Joint Economic Report, Report authored by East Asian Bureau of Economic Research and China Center for International Economic Exchanges, August 2016: https://press.anu.edu.au/publications/partnership-change#:~:text=The%2520Australia%E2%80%93China%2520Joint%2520Economic,in%2520both%2520Australia%2520and%2520China.

2017 Foreign Policy White Paper: https://www.dfat.gov.au/sites/default/files/2017-foreign-policy-white-paper.pdf

Paul Hubbard and Dhruv Sharma, “Understanding and applying long-term GDP projections”, EABER Working Paper Series, Paper No. 119, June 2016: https://eaber.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/EABER-Working-Paper-119-Hubbard-Sharma.pdf

Paul Hubbard, A Wealth of Narrations: https://www.amazon.com.au/Wealth-Narrations-1-PC-Hubbard/dp/B0CR6TXX7C

Chris Miller, Chip War: https://www.simonandschuster.com.au/books/Chip-War/Chris-Miller/9781398504127

The Ezra Klein Show, “Israelis Are Not Watching the Same War You Are:, Interview with Amit Segal, 14 June 2024: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/14/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-amit-segal.html

Ep. 132: “Stabilisation” of the PRC bilateral, viewed from DC

Joining Darren this episode is Jude Blanchette. Jude holds the Freeman Chair in China Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). There’s no-one whose analysis and commentary Darren values more highly in helping him understand China.  

The context for this discussion is the fact that this weekend China’s Premier Li Qiang will visit Australia, the first visit by Chinese #2 since 2017. Following on from PM Albanese’s trip to Beijing late last year, and FM Wang Yi’s trip to Australia in March, Premier Li’s visit will continue the process of unfreezing the political relationship, what the current Australian government famously labels ‘stabilisation’. However, the Albanese government has not escaped criticism for its approach to China. Some would argue Canberra has gone softer on Beijing than it could have, whether on responding to dangerous actions by the Chinese military, or on perennial issues like human rights. And there’s also been a criticism of stabilisation as strategy – what is the goal of stabilisation? What is the end state?

What is striking about these criticisms is how similar they are to criticisms of the Biden’s administration’s approach to China, which is often given the label ‘competition’. What is the goal of competition? Does the US just ‘compete’ indefinitely, a kind of steady-state, or should it be focused on an ‘end-state’? A recent piece by former Trump administration China lead Matt Pottinger and retiring GOP Congressperson Mike Gallagher argues that the goal should be not to compete, but to win.

With all this as context, recently Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade hosted a group of US-based China experts here in Canberra, presenting Darren with an opportunity to interview Jude in-studio. Jude also hosts the excellent Pekingology podcast, where he interviews scholars and researchers who study the actions of China’s government and the CCP in particular.

In our conversation we cover Australia-China relations, US-China relations and the links between the two, and many other things besides. We start, of course, with the concept of stabilisation in the Australian context, but very quickly that broadens out into a discussion of the Biden approach given its parallels with stabilisation, and the Pottinger/Gallagher critique. We then turn to the question of how to influence China, and the balance between wielding direct influence versus working indirectly with partners. I ask Jude how he explains the apparent adjustment in PRC foreign policy in recent years, and how a potential Trump return to the Presidency might shake things up.

Above all however the big question overshadowing our discussion is this: what’s the best way of forging a long-term China strategy, how early are we into the competition phase with China, and how long will it last? And what is the narrative needed to sustain such a strategy?

Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Corbin Duncan and theme music composed by Rory Stenning.

Relevant links

Jude Blanchette (bio): https://www.csis.org/people/jude-blanchette

Pekingology (podcast): https://www.csis.org/podcasts/pekingology 

Matt Pottinger and Mike Gallagher, “No Substitute for Victory: America’s Competition With China Must Be Won, Not Managed”, Foreign Affairs, May/June 2024: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/no-substitute-victory-pottinger-gallagher

David Engerman, Know your enemy: The Rise and Fall of America's Soviet Experts (book): https://global.oup.com/academic/product/know-your-enemy-9780195324860

The Gloaming (band): https://www.youtube.com/c/thegloaming

Zach Bryan, “I remember everything” (feat. Kacey Musgraves): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZVVvJjwzl6c