Australia in the World

Ep. 95: Solomon Islands and China enter a security pact

Foreign policy has been thrust to the forefront of the Australian election campaign, with the announcement this week that Solomon Islands and China have officially signed a security agreement. Allan and Darren talk through the background, logic, politics and implications of the deal. Their core focus is on Solomon Islands itself – the interests of the government in entering this agreement and the risks, what Australia has done and could in future do to protect its own interests, and what the pact might mean for the region’s security into the future.

We thank Annabel Howard for research and audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music.  

Relevant links

Bill Birtles, Stephen Dziedzic and Evan Wasuka, “China and Solomon Islands sign security pact, Beijing says it is 'not directed at any third party' amid Pacific influence fears”, ABC News, 20 April 2022: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-19/china-and-solomon-islands-sign-security-pact-says-chinese-foreig/101000530

Marise Payne and Zed Seselja, “Statement on Solomon Islands”, 25 March 2022: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/marise-payne/media-release/statement-solomon-islands

Joanne Wallis and Czeslaw Tubilewicz, “Saying China ‘bought’ a military base in the Solomons is simplistic and shows how little Australia understands power in the Pacific”, The Conversation, 25 March 2022: https://theconversation.com/saying-china-bought-a-military-base-in-the-solomons-is-simplistic-and-shows-how-little-australia-understands-power-in-the-pacific-180020

Prime Minister - Transcript - Press Conference - Tonsley, SA, 20 April 2022: https://www.liberal.org.au/latest-news/2022/04/20/prime-minister-transcript-press-conference-tonsley-sa

China Solomon Islands Security Agreement and Blue Pacific InSecurities (Youtube video), 21 April 2022: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IBJjlc5hb2k

David Crowe and Eryk Bagshaw, “China could have Solomon Islands military base within four weeks”, Sydney Morning Herald, 20 April 2022: https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/china-could-have-solomon-islands-military-base-within-four-weeks-20220420-p5aevc.html

Sam and Lawrence Freedman, “Comment is Freed” newsletter: https://samf.substack.com/

Bruno Macaes, “A war of world-building”, The City Journal, 3 April 2022: https://www.city-journal.org/a-war-of-world-building

Ep. 94: Pre-election foreign policy speeches by Morrison and Albanese

Both Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Leader of the Opposition Anthony Albanese delivered pre-election foreign policy speeches this month, and this episode analyses them together.

Relevant links

“An address by PM Scott Morrison”, Lowy Institute, 7 March 2022: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/address-prime-minister-scott-morrison

Scott Morrison, “Virtual address, AFR Business Summit”, 7 March 2022: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/virtual-address-afr-business-summit

“An address by Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese”, Lowy Institute, 10 March 2022: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/address-opposition-leader-anthony-albanese

Graeme Wood, “Absolute power”, The Atlantic, 3 March 2022: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2022/04/mohammed-bin-salman-saudi-arabia-palace-interview/622822/

“American Utopia” (trailer): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lg4hcgtjDPc

David Byrne, “One fine day” (live), Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/track/0mig4WeZbQ9FSxf50Ta9Eo

Ep. 93: The invasion of Ukraine and updating priors

With the world watching in shock at Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Allan and Darren describe how the crisis, and in particular the world’s response, are (and are not) causing them to reconsider their priors about how politics and international affairs works. Allan describes how impressed he has been with Europe’s response, while Darren is completely surprised at the speed and magnitude of the economic and financial sanctions imposed on Russia, in particular its central bank. Meanwhile, Allan reflects on the contingency of the Biden presidency, wondering how things would have been different had Donald Trump been president and what that says about the variability of the United States as a factor in world politics. Darren considers the responses of regional powers such as China, India and the ASEAN countries. Finally, they discuss early implications for Australia.

Relevant links

Anne Applebaum, “The impossible suddenly became possible”, The Atlantic, 2 March 2022: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/putins-war-dispelled-the-worlds-illusions/623335/

China Talk (podcast), “The new old cold war with Tooze and Klein”, 1 March 2022: https://chinatalk.substack.com/p/the-new-old-cold-war-with-tooze-and?s=r

Adam Tooze, “Chartbook #89 Russia’s financial meltdown and the global dollar system”, 28 February 2022: https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-89-russias-financial-meltdown?s=r

Robert Keohane and Joseph Nye (1987) “Power and interdependence revisited”, International Organization 41(4): 725-753. http://www.rochelleterman.com/ir/sites/default/files/Keohane%20Nye%201987.pdf

Patrick McKenzie, “Moving money internationally”, Bits about money (newsletter), 2 March 2022: https://bam.kalzumeus.com/archive/moving-money-internationally/

Paul Kelly, “Morrison’s Mission: A Lowy Institute Paper”, Penguin Specials, February 2022: https://www.penguin.com.au/books/morrisons-mission-a-lowy-institute-paper-penguin-special-9780143778042

The Ezra Klein Show, “Can the West stop Russia by strangling its economy (with Adam Tooze), 1 March 2022: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/01/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-adam-tooze.html

Ep. 92: Our own foreign policy election “debate”

Australia will have a federal election in a few months, but Allan and Darren are sceptical that substantive foreign policy debates will feature during the campaign. Accordingly, this episode they decide to have their own debate to try to help listeners think through some of the important issues that will (probably) be ignored. They consider four central questions that will shape the future of Australia in the world, and try to offer their best arguments for and against each proposition.

The questions are:

1. Assuming a fixed funding envelope containing defence and foreign policy, Australia should shift resources and attention from the defence portfolio into foreign affairs.
2. Australia needs a “reset” in its relations with Beijing and Canberra should be the one to initiate concessions. The specific proposal is that the Australian government adopt a policy of not commenting on China-specific human rights issues – Xinjiang, Tibet, and other domestic repressions.
3. AUKUS, a scaled up 5 Eyes, and the Quad form the fundamentals of a new Australian architecture for engaging the world, and should be given priority over multilateralism.
4. Assuming a fixed funding envelope, foreign policy resources should be shifted away from the South Pacific and into Southeast Asia.

Most importantly, Allan and Darren do not necessarily offer their own views on the individual questions, but the best argument each can muster, whether it coincides with their opinions or not. Moreover, they deliberately swap sides across the questions and probably contradict themselves in the process. So, please, no quoting us out of context!

The questions are framed in terms of concrete policy agendas where there could, in principle at least, be coherent and substantive disagreement. The questions avoid “more” propositions that posit “we need to do more” or “we need to spend more” since, by themselves, such propositions do not acknowledge the trade-offs. The questions also concern issues that relate as much as possible to the foreign and defence policy realms, and are not intimately linked with domestic issues that would unavoidably shape the debate. This means two major omissions – climate change and border protection.

Once the ‘formal’ debate is over, Allan and Darren conclude by discussing the underlying themes that tie the questions together and which likely shape one’s perspective on Australia in the world.

We bid farewell to Mitchell McIntosh and give our most heartfelt thanks for his contributions to making the podcast a success. We welcome Annabel Howard, and thank her for her help this week. Thanks also to Rory Stenning for composing our theme music.

Relevant links

James Wise, “The Costs of Discounted Diplomacy” ASPI Strategic Insights Report #168, February 2022: https://www.aspi.org.au/report/costs-discounted-diplomacy

Asia-Pacific Development, Diplomacy & Defence Dialogue, Australia and Southeast
Asia: Shaping a Shared Future (Canberra 2022): www.asiapacific4d.com

Ian Bremmer, “The Technopolar Moment: How Digital Powers Will Reshape the Global Order”, Foreign Affairs, November/ December 2021: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2021-10-19/ian-bremmer-big-tech-global-order

Ep. 91: Ukraine

Allan and Darren venture far outside their comfort zones this week to give some thoughts on the escalating crisis between Russia, Ukraine and NATO. This is an interesting and important issue because it brings together so many of the central questions in international relations. These include: the use of military coercion and other forms of deterrence; the behaviour of great powers, the role of diplomacy and signalling; the links between strategic and economic interests; the politics of the transatlantic relationship; the role of alliances; and the practical meaning of norms like ‘sovereignty’ and ‘self-determination’.

While not all of these can be covered in depth in a single episode, they all inform Allan and Darren as they offer initial opinions of the strategic context and stakes involved. These events are important to Australia because of their potential impact on the international order and, in particular, America’s role in it. Along the way, the discussion covers the specific phenomenon of “spheres of influence”, the geoeconomic dimensions, and whether there is any scope at all for for multilateral organisations to contribute. The episode finishes by looking at how the Australian government has responded and thinking about what Beijing’s perspective might be.  

Relevant links

Adam Tooze, “Putin’s challenge to western hegemony – the 2022 edition”, Chartbook newsletter #68, 12 January 2022: https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-68-putins-challenge-to

Ross Douthat, “How to retreat from Ukraine”, New York Times, 22 January 2022: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/22/opinion/russia-ukraine-us-nato.html

Francis Fukuyama, “Why Ukraine matters”, American Purpose, 24 January 2022: https://www.americanpurpose.com/blog/fukuyama/why-ukraine-matters/

Rob Lee, “Moscow’s compellence strategy”, Foreign Policy Research Institute, 18 January 2022: https://www.fpri.org/article/2022/01/moscows-compellence-strategy/

Greg Earl, “Bitcoin vs the IMF, and other great expectations”, Lowy Interpreter, 27 January 2022: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/bitcoin-vs-imf-and-other-great-expectations

Plain English podcast, “The Biggest Losers of the Streaming Wars: ESPN, Movie Theatres, Peacock, and More”, 18 January 2022: https://www.theringer.com/2022/1/18/22888915/the-biggest-losers-of-the-streaming-wars-espn-movie-theaters-peacock-and-more

 

(Other interesting readings, in chronological order)

Tyler Cowen, “What Will Putin Do Next? Game Theory Offers Some Clues”, Bloomberg, 19 January 2022: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-01-19/what-will-putin-do-next-time-for-some-game-theory

“What would a Ukraine conflict look like” Rachman Review Podcast, 20 January 2022: https://overcast.fm/+2IlRysJbY

Edward Fishman and Chris Miller, “The Russia Sanctions That Could Actually Stop Putin”, Politico, 21 January 2022: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/01/21/russia-sanctions-stop-putin-energy-markets-us-invasion-527524

Noah Smith, “Why is Ukraine such an economic failure”, Noahpinion newsletter, 23 January 2022: https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/why-is-ukraine-such-an-economic-failure

Fiona Hill, “Putin Has the U.S. Right Where He Wants It”, New York Times, 24 January 2022: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/24/opinion/russia-ukraine-putin-biden.html?referringSource=articleShare

Michael Kofman, “Putin’s wager in Russia’s standoff with the west”, War on the Rocks, 24 January 2022: https://warontherocks.com/2022/01/putins-wager-in-russias-standoff-with-the-west/

Daniel Drezner, “On deterring Russia”, Washington Post, 26 January 2022: https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2022/01/26/deterring-russia/

Center for Defense Strategies, “How likely is large-scale war in Ukraine?”, The Kyiv Independent, 29 January 2022: https://kyivindependent.com/national/center-for-defense-strategies-how-probable-is-large-scale-war-in-ukraine-analysis/

Kyle Wilson, “Putin’s NATO power play stirs disquiet among Russia’s security elite”, ASPI Strategist, 29 January 2022: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/putins-nato-power-play-stirs-disquiet-among-russias-security-elite/

Ep. 90: Lessons from 2021; expectations and hopes for 2022

For their first episode in 2022, Allan and Darren look back over the past 12 months, starting with the international landscape and then focusing on Australia. First up, what big lesson did 2021 teach them? Interestingly, both focus on the United States in their answers--but how much is domestic dysfunction in the US actually affecting Biden’s foreign policy? Second, did the world’s experience with COVID-19 over the past year affect any of the major trends in international affairs? While at the end of 2020 there seemed to be a clear dividing line between ‘competent’ and ‘incompetent’ government responses, that distinction appears far less clear a year later. Third, what other notable trends emerged or crystallised across the year? For Allan, signs of a reversal of the long period called “the great convergence” are quite concerning, while for Darren the big picture structural trends are mostly unchanged. 

The same questions are asked about Australia. Allan (cheekily?) describes 2021 as Australia’s response to a ‘fear of abandonment’, while Darren is interested in how the change in US administration affected foreign policy rhetoric from the Morrison government. Looking forward to 2022, both Allan and Darren offer both expectations and hopes for the coming year, internationally and for Australia. Both expect that 2022 will be a calmer and more stable year--how quickly might they be proven wrong?

On that cheerful note, a happy new year to all!

Relevant links

COVID-19: Make it the Last Pandemic by The Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness & Response, May 2021: https://theindependentpanel.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/COVID-19-Make-it-the-Last-Pandemic_final.pdf

Anne Applebaum, “The kleptocrats next door”, The Atlantic, 8 December 2021: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2022/01/american-kleptocracy-kleptopia-united-states-dirty-money/620852/

Colin Kahl and Thomas Wright, Aftershocks: Pandemic Politics and the End of the Old International Order (St Martin’s Press, 2021): https://www.brookings.edu/books/aftershocks-pandemic-politics-and-the-end-of-the-old-international-order/

Anthea Roberts and Nicolas Lamp, Six Faces of Globalization: Who Wins, Who Loses, and Why It Matters (Harvard University Press, 2021): https://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674245952

Ep. 89: Democracy summit; S. Korea visit; Olympic boycott; communicating foreign policy

In their final episode for 2021, Allan and Darren kick things off by discussing President Biden’s “Summit for Democracy”. Having debated the merits of democracy as a foreign policy organising principle in Episode 77, they now ask: was the actual summit a net positive, despite controversies prior to and during proceedings? It seems clear Beijing was displeased, but Allan and Darren partially disagree on whether a “competition of systems” is the right frame to understand these dynamics. Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Tony Blinken rolled out the Biden administration’s much-anticipated Indo-Pacific Strategy – but was there much there?

Next up, PM Scott Morrison hosted South Korea’s President Moon Jae-in, the first visit of a foreign leader to Australia since borders closed. Was this a significant visit, and was it more about geopolitics, or economics? How much scope is there for cooperation between Australia and South Korea?

Third, Australia does appear to be participating in a political boycott of the Beijing Olympics, but PM Morrison’s announcement of this decision was rather unorthodox. What’s going on, and can such boycotts be effective? Darren is interested in how the case of Chinese tennis player Peng Shuai is elevating public visibility of human rights issues, creating extra pressure on Beijing, and the International Olympic Committee (IOC), as the February games approach.

Finally, both the Olympic boycott and, prior to that, the momentous AUKUS decision were not announced to the public with speeches or formal statements. Is this a growing trend in the public articulation of Australian foreign policy? Does it matter?

Best wishes for the holiday season to all, we’ll be back in 2022!

Relevant links

US Department of State, “Summit for Democracy”: https://www.state.gov/further-information-the-summit-for-democracy/#Summit

“Joe Biden’s Summit for Democracy is not all that democratic”, The Economist, 6 December 2021: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/12/06/joe-bidens-summit-for-democracy-is-not-all-that-democratic

Humeyra Pamuk and Michael Martina, David Brunnstrom, “The curious case of a map and a disappearing Taiwan minister at U.S. democracy summit”, Reuters, 13 December 2021: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/curious-case-map-disappearing-taiwan-minister-us-democracy-summit-2021-12-12/

Scott Morrison, “Virtual address: Summit for democracy”, 11 December 2021: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/virtual-address-summit-democracy

Jessica Brandt, tweet regarding Hamilton 2.0 dashboard data on Chinese mentions of democracy summit, 13 December 2021: https://twitter.com/jessbrandt/status/1470432173199134722

Mareike Ohlberg and Bonnie Glaser, “Why China Is Freaking Out Over Biden’s Democracy Summit”, Foreign Policy, 10 December 2021: https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/12/10/china-response-biden-democracy-summit/

National Security Podcast, “How the Chinese Communist Party sees China’s place in the world”, 9 December 2021: https://www.policyforum.net/national-security-podcast-how-the-chinese-communist-party-sees-chinas-place-in-the-world/

Xi Jinping, “What's the fundamental reason for China's growing strength? in Governance of China: https://www.cgtn.com/how-china-works/news/2021-05-05/What-s-the-fundamental-reason-for-China-s-growing-strength--ZZS93ixp2E/share.html

Lowy Institute Poll, “Democracy”: https://poll.lowyinstitute.org/themes/democracy/

Secretary Blinken’s Remarks on a Free and Open Indo-Pacific, Fact Sheet, US Department of State, 13 December 2021: https://www.state.gov/fact-sheet-secretary-blinkens-remarks-on-a-free-and-open-indo-pacific/

PM Morrison and President Moon, Joint Press Conference transcript, 13 December 2021: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/press-conference-canberra-act-32

Stephen Dziedzic, “Is South Korean President Moon Jae-in's visit more about geopolitics or commerce?”, ABC News, 14 December 2021: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-14/south-korea-president-moon-jae-in-visit-analysis/100699582

Scott Morrison, Press Conference, Penshurst NSW, 8 December 2021: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/press-conference-penshurst-nsw

Li Yuan, “Its Human Rights Record in Question, China Turns to an Old Friend”, New York Times, 14 December 2021: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/14/business/china-olympics-peng-shuai-samaranch.html

“Beijing Winter Olympics boycott is insignificant, says Macron”, BBC News, 9 December 2021: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59599063

Oliver Burkeman, Four Thousand Weeks: Time and How to Use it, Penguin: https://www.penguin.com.au/books/four-thousand-weeks-9781847924018

Olivia Rodrigo, Good 4 U: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=byfiQA8HRaE

Sufjan Stevens, Once in Royal David’s City: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UwsLARZN6ro

Ep. 88: Biden/Xi; Dutton/Wong; COP26; Solomon Islands

This week Allan and Darren open their discussion with the Biden-Xi virtual meeting. It went for a long time, the atmosphere seemed cordial – is this enough for (some) optimism about the trajectory of US-China relations? Allan thinks so, while Darren cannot resist the temptation to offer an IR theory perspective and explain that the game theoretic concept of “deadlock” might best capture the bulk of US-China relations at present.

Next, Allan and Darren analyse two recent speeches from Australian political leaders. To begin, in an interview Defence Minister Peter Dutton described as “inconceivable” that Australia would not support the US in an action to defend Taiwan, doubling down on this position in a speech to the National Press Club. In between, Shadow Foreign Minister Penny Wong critiqued the Dutton position in a speech at the ANU. What is the logic of Dutton’s explicit language? Does it affect strategic dynamics? While the government is often outspoken about China, ministers also regularly pass up the chance to say more – how is the choice to speak out calculated? Meanwhile, Darren sees a national security politics "minefield" in efforts to critique governments as being too hawkish, but both he and Allan judge that Wong's speech was able to do it effectively, while introducing several other interesting ideas as well.

The next topic is the COP26 meeting in Glasgow. Allan’s assessment of the outcome is mixed, while Darren focuses on how difficult multilateral negotiations must be, especially because negotiators enter with high ambitions that may never be achieved because of the need for compromise. He thus understands why the conference president Alok Sharma shed tears of disappointment, but understands that a willingness to be disappointed, but nevertheless keep going, is essential.

Finally, Australia is deploying police and troops to Solomon Islands given unfolding unrest. Allan provides the historical context to this decision (the RAMSI mission) while Darren wonders whether the China angle is meaningful.

Relevant links

The White House, Readout of President Biden’s Virtual Meeting with President Xi Jinping of the People’s Republic of China, 16 November 2021: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/11/16/readout-of-president-bidens-virtual-meeting-with-president-xi-jinping-of-the-peoples-republic-of-china/

Vincent Ni, “Biden-Xi summit highlights tensions – and desire for cooperation” The Guardian, 16 Nov 2021: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/16/biden-xi-summit-highlights-tensions-and-desire-for-cooperation

Lily Kuo, “China lauds Biden-Xi summit as start of more equal relationship, despite lack of real progress”, Washington Post, 16 November 2021: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/xi-biden-summit-china-reaction/2021/11/16/f28cd98e-4657-11ec-beca-3cc7103bd814_story.html

Troy Bramston, “Taiwan defence a must: Dutton”, The Australian, 13 November 2021: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/defence/defending-taiwan-against-beijing-is-a-must-says-peter-dutton/news-story/ef9dd7fd56515afbdc90021760d1d344

Penny Wong, “Expanding Australia’s Power and Influence: Speech to the National Security College”, Australian National University, Canberra, 23 November 2021: https://www.pennywong.com.au/media-hub/speeches/expanding-australia-s-power-and-influence-speech-to-the-national-security-college-australian-national-university-canberra-23-11-2021/

Peter Dutton, National Press Club Address, Canberra, ACT, 26 November 2021: https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/minister/peter-dutton/speeches/national-press-club-address-canberra-act

Mark Thirlwell, “An initial assessment of COP26’, Australian Institute of Company Directors, 17 November 2021: https://aicd.companydirectors.com.au/advocacy/chief-economist/an-initial-assessment-of-cop26

“COP26: Alok Sharma fights back tears as Glasgow Climate Pact agreed”, BBC Video, 13 November 2021: https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-59276651

Alexander Downer, “Solomon Islands intervention is always about the China factor”, Australian Financial Review, 28 November 2021: https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/solomon-islands-intervention-is-always-about-the-china-factor-20211125-p59c9l

Ed Cavanough, “Behind the scenes in the Solomons, local leader has leveraged China issue to his advantage”, Sydney Morning Herald, 26 November 2021: https://www.smh.com.au/world/oceania/behind-the-scenes-in-the-solomons-local-leader-has-leveraged-china-issue-to-his-advantage-20211126-p59cks.html

Tess Newton Cain, “As Australia deploys troops and police, what now for Solomon Islands?”, The Conversation, 26 November 2021: https://theconversation.com/as-australia-deploys-troops-and-police-what-now-for-solomon-islands-172678

The Velvet Underground (Trailer): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hWq7a8Tin8g

“Introducing ‘Plain English with Derek Thompson’” (podcast): https://www.theringer.com/2021/11/11/22776415/introducing-plain-english-with-derek-thompson

Ep. 87: On truth and trust in diplomacy (Morrison vs Macron)

Allan and Darren cannot resist focusing on the escalated and seemingly personal spat between Australian PM Scott Morrison and French President Emmanuel Macron over Australia’s cancellation of the French submarine contract, then followed by the launch of AUKUS. During Morrison's recent international trip, Macron called him a liar, to which the Australian side responded by leaking details of private text messages the French president had sent the PM just days prior to the announcement. In Morrison’s words: “claims were made, claims were refuted”.

Who is in the right/wrong here? Stepping back, what is the role of honesty and integrity, or truth and trust, in international diplomacy? How much does it matter?

Along the way, Darren finds the temptation to develop a potted academic theory of a “Morrison doctrine” too strong to pass up. Let the debate begin!

We thank Mitchell McIntosh for audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music.         

Relevant links

Cameron Stewart, “How Biden threw PM under the bus”, The Australian, 2 November 2021: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/how-joe-biden-threw-scott-morrison-under-the-bus/news-story/5dde5b5f35ef17842d83a1f4d74f83a1

Samantha Maiden, “Who is really lying in Scott Morrison, Emmanuel Macron’s French submarine feud”, Daily Telegraph, 2 November 2021:  https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/business/work/who-is-really-lying-in-scott-morrison-emmanuel-macrons-french-submarine-feud/news-story/f77df0b11df50eee5d07e681a2ef749d  

Phillip Coorey, “‘I don’t like losing’: Macron ‘knew’ the subs contract was in peril”, Australian Financial Review, 1 November 2021: https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/i-don-t-like-losing-macron-knew-the-subs-contract-was-in-peril-20211101-p594xr   

Stephen Dziedzic and Georgia Hitch “French ambassador says leaking of text messages between Scott Morrison and Emmanuel Macron 'unprecedented new low'”, ABC News, 3 November 2021: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-03/french-ambassador-jean-pierre-thebault-submarines/100590382  

Jake Evans, “Scott Morrison refuses to apologise to President Emmanuel Macron after claims PM lied about submarine deal”, ABC News, 3 November 2021: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-03/scott-morrison-refuses-to-apologise-to-macron/100590506

Diplomacy by Harold Nicolson (Goodreads page): https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/1678410.Diplomacy

Marise Payne “Inaugural Australia-France 2+2 Ministerial Consultations”, 30 August 2021: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/marise-payne/media-release/inaugural-australia-france-22-ministerial-consultations

Daniel Hurst, “Scrapping submarines deal broke trust, Macron tells Australian PM”, The Guardian, 28 October 2021: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/28/france-seeks-tangible-actions-from-australia-after-submarines-row

Andrew Tillett, “Defence admits it is looking at back-up plan for French subs deal”, Australian Financial Review, 2 June 2021: https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/defence-admits-it-is-looking-at-back-up-plan-for-french-subs-deal-20210602-p57xdu

Paul Kelly, “Morrison had to hurt France to get AUKUS subs deal”, The Australian, 3 November 2021: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/morrison-had-to-hurt-france-to-get-aukus-subs-deal/news-story/7e839a998e2bb7faee42334afae724ce

Andrew Probyn, “Scott Morrison rejects French President's criticism over handling of scrapped submarine project”, ABC News, 1 November 2021: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-01/scott-morrison-rejects-emmanuel-macrons-accusations-of-lying/100586680

Ben Herscovitch, “Beijing to Canberra and Back” (newsletter): https://beijing2canberra.substack.com/

Adam Tooze, “Chartbook” (newsletter): https://adamtooze.substack.com/

Heather Cox Richardson, “Letters from an American” (newsletter): https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/

Bill Bishop, “Sinocism” (newsletter): https://sinocism.com/

Andrew Daily “The Weekly Dish” (newsletter): https://andrewsullivan.substack.com/

American Purpose (newsletter): https://www.americanpurpose.com/

Rohit, “Why do we dislike rules so much”, Strange Loop Cannon (newsletter), 7 September 2021: https://www.strangeloopcanon.com/p/why-do-we-dislike-rules-so-much

Ep. 86: Global Trends 2040 (Part 2), with Heather Smith and Katherine Mansted

In the second half of their conversation arising out of the US National Intelligence Council publication “Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World”, Allan and Darren, along with guests Heather Smith and Katherine Mansted, turn to remaining sections.

Section 2 of the report concerns “emerging dynamics”, and asks how the structural forces outlined in the first section (and discussed in Part 1)—demographics, economics, technology and the environment—interact with other factors at three levels of analysis. Katherine speaks to the level of individuals and society, Heather to the level of the state, and Allan to the level of the international system.

The major theme of this section is greater debate and contestation, and the consequences for the cohesiveness of societies and the resilience of states. The report’s authors see growing pessimism around the world regarding the future, and greater distrust of leaders and institutions. They foresee a growing imbalance between public demands and governments’ ability to deliver on those demands.

Section 3 concludes the report by looking at possible scenarios for the world in 2040. The report’s authors stress these are not intended to be predictions, but to present a broad spectrum of possibilities that explore how various combinations of structural forces and emerging dynamics, along with other uncertainties, could play out. Each discussant offers their take on which of the five scenarios described is most resonant: (i) Renaissance of Democracies; (ii) A World Adrift; (iii) Competitive Coexistence; (iv) Separate Silos; and (v) Tragedy and Mobilisation.

As Katherine astutely observes in her concluding thoughts, it is right and proper to maintain a clear distinction between intelligence and policy. Nevertheless, a publication such as this will leave many wanting more—more actionable and more persuasive policy insights. Navigating a way through the dark clouds on the horizon is not however the role of the intelligence community... but someone will have to do it.

Heather Smith is a Professor at the ANU’s National Security College, following a distinguished career in the Australian public service including serving as Deputy Director-General of ONA, Deputy Secretary of DFAT, and Secretary of the Departments of Communications and of Industry, Innovation and Science.

Katherine Mansted is a Senior Fellow in the Practice of National Security at the ANU’s National Security College, and also the Director of Cyber Intelligence at CyberCX.

We thank Mitchell McIntosh for his help with research and audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music.

Relevant links

“Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World”, a publication of the National Intelligence Council, March 2021: https://www.dni.gov/index.php/gt2040-home