Australia in the World

Ep. 101: Taiwan

Taiwan represents possibly the most intractable issue in international affairs, but also one of the most important. Arguably, no theory or opinion on the biggest questions Australian foreign policy can be complete, or maybe even credible, until it grapples with the Taiwan issue. And so on this episode Allan and Darren use the occasion of US Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s controversial visit to the island to sort through their views.

Be warned, this is a long and wonkish episode! But more so than perhaps anything else discussed on the podcast, Taiwan requires the time and space to lay out one’s views and have them challenged.

The episode concludes with a quick update on Australia-China relations, given the Chinese Ambassador’s recent speech at the National Press Club.

We bid farewell Annabel Howard and thank her so much for all her help, and welcome Atikah Mekki and thank her for audio editing today, and thanks also to Rory Stenning for composing our theme music.

Relevant links

James Fearon, “Rationalist explanations for war”, International Organization, Volume 49 Issue 3 (1995): https://web.stanford.edu/group/fearon-research/cgi-bin/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Rationalist-Explanations-for-War.pdf

Hugh White, “Sleepwalk to War: Australia's Unthinking Alliance with America”, Quarterly Essay, 27 June 2022: https://www.blackincbooks.com.au/books/sleepwalk-war

Michael Beckley, Zack Cooper, and Allison Schwartz, “Deterring Coercion and Conflict Across the Taiwan Strait”, American Enterprise Institute: https://www.defendingtaiwan.com/deterring-coercion-and-conflict-across-the-taiwan-strait/

James R. Holmes and Toshi Yoshihara, “Taiwan’s Navy: Able to Deny Command of the Sea?”, China Brief Volume 10, Issue 8 (2010): https://jamestown.org/program/taiwans-navy-able-to-deny-command-of-the-sea/

Bonnie Glaser and Zack Cooper, “Nancy Pelosi’s Trip to Taiwan Is Too Dangerous” New York Times, 28 July 2022: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/28/opinion/china-us-taiwan-pelosi.html

Ben Herscovitch, “Australia’s shifting statements on Taiwan, China’s changed tone, and coal exports”, Beijing to Canberra and Back” (newsletter), 4 August 2022: https://beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/australias-shifting-statements-on

Ambassador Xiao Qian, Ambassador of the People's Republic of China, Speech to National Press Club (video), 10 August 2022: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AXeHRtmWJ68

China's ambassador to Australia addresses National Press Club ⁠— as it happened (Live Blog), ABC News, 10 August 2022: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-10/live-updates-xiao-qian-addresses-national-press-club/101318252

Ben Herscovitch, “Beijing (re)embraces one-China disinformation plus aggregate leader-level meetings”, Beijing to Canberra and Back” (newsletter), 31 August 2022: https://beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/beijing-reembraces-one-china-disinformation

Gatra Priyandita, Dirk Van Der Kley and Ben Herscovitch, “Localization and China’s Tech Success in Indonesia”, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 11 July 2022: https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/07/11/localization-and-china-s-tech-success-in-indonesia-pub-87477

Kevin Rudd, The Avoidable War: The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict between the US and Xi Jinping’s China (Hachette, 2022): https://www.hachette.com.au/kevin-rudd/the-avoidable-war-the-dangers-of-a-catastrophic-conflict-between-the-us-and-xi-jinpings-china

Jessica Chen Weiss, “The China Trap: US foreign policy and the perilous logic of zero-sum competition”, Foreign Affairs, Sep/Oct 2022: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/china-trap-us-foreign-policy-zero-sum-competition

The Sandman (TV): https://www.netflix.com/au/title/81150303

Ep. 100: Foreign Minister Penny Wong

For the 100^th episode of Australia in the World, Allan and Darren welcome Australia’s Minister for Foreign Affairs, Senator Penny Wong.

Allan begins by asking the Minister “why this job?” given her heavy additional responsibilities, and how she is able to carve out “thinking time” given the non-stop nature of her role. The hosts are thrilled to hear that Senator Wong listens to the podcast, and even listened to recent episode where her own speeches were discussed! Darren raises her Kuala Lumpur speech with a question about the links between Australia’s interests and its evolving modern identity. He then harks back to the Senator’s first speech to the Australian Parliament, delivered in August 2002, to ask whether compassion – a central theme in that first speech – might play a role in managing some of Australia’s most difficult relationships. He then asks what role foreign policy might play in boosting public trust in democratic institutions at home.

The conversation turns to DFAT, and how Australia’s diplomatic capability can best be augmented given most Commonwealth Government departments have international footprints. Darren cannot resist asking about Senate Estimates hearings, including the balance professional bureaucrats must strike between secrecy and accountability. Allan turns the conversation to agency – a long-running theme of the podcast – to ask whether and how foreign policy outcomes can be different under the new government. Allan also asks about how Australia can balance its regional versus global interests.

We thank Annabel Howard for audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. We also thank all the previous AIIA interns who have provided essential support to the podcast over the past four years.

Allan and Darren also wish to express their heartfelt gratitude to listeners to this podcast. The only reason we reached our 100th episode is because of the encouragement, interest and feedback we have received from an audience that has continued to grow. We found an engaged and informed community of people who share our conviction that Australian foreign policy matters for everything we want to do as a country. We could not be more grateful for your support. Thank you.

Relevant links

Senator the Hon Penny Wong, First Speech to Parliament, 21 August 2022: https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=Id%3A%22chamber%2Fhansards%2F2002-08-21%2F0106%22;src1=sm1

Ep. 99: Much travel & many speeches; PRC meeting; PIF; Lowy poll

Allan and Darren begin this episode by stepping back from a very busy first two months of foreign policy for the new government. If one were to build a model of the making of Australian foreign policy, what could we learn from from this particular case study and how would it stand out? Turning to events, the analysis begins with PM Albanese’s trip to Europe for the NATO summit, then turns to the travels and speeches of FM Wong and DM Marles, including Wong’s important meeting with her Chinese counterpart Wang Yi on the sidelines of the G20 foreign ministers’ meeting in Bali. Next they turn to the recent Pacific Islands Forum meeting in Suva and the withdrawal of Kiribati from the grouping, and finish with a discussion of the latest Lowy Institute Poll.

We thank Annabel Howard for audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music.

Relevant links

Penny Wong, “Keynote address in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia”, 29 June 2022: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/speech/keynote-address-kuala-lumpur-malaysia

Penny Wong, “Special lecture to the International Institute for Strategic Studies - A shared future: Australia, ASEAN and Southeast Asia”, 6 July 2022: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/speech/special-lecture-international-institute-strategic-studies-shared-future-australia-asean-and-southeast-asia

Penny Wong, “Meeting with China’s State Councilor and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Wang Yi”, Media release, 8 July 2022: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/media-release/meeting-chinas-state-councilor-and-minister-foreign-affairs-wang-yi

“Wang Yi Meets with Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong”, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the PRC”, 9 July 2022: https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/202207/t20220710_10718115.html

Press Conference (Transcript), Prime Minister and Treasurer, 11 July 2022: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/press-conference-parliament-house-canberra

Jocelyn Chey, “When words matter: Reviewing the Wong-Wang meeting”, Pearls and Irritations, 13 July 2022: https://johnmenadue.com/when-words-matter-reviewing-the-wong-wang-meeting/

Richard Marles, “Speech: National Defence College New Delhi, India”, 22 June 2022: https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/minister/rmarles/speeches/speech-national-defence-college-new-delhi-india

Richard Marles, “Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)”, 12 July 2022: https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/minister/rmarles/speeches/address-center-strategic-and-international-studies-csis

Lowy Institute Poll: https://poll.lowyinstitute.org/

Bruce Miller, “For all his nationalism, Abe was a true globalist and statesman”, Australian Financial Review, 10 July 2022: https://www.afr.com/world/asia/for-all-his-nationalism-abe-was-a-true-globalist-and-statesman-20220710-p5b0g4

Hugh White, “Sleepwalk to war: Australia’s Unthinking Alliance with America”, Quarterly Essay 86, June 2022: https://www.quarterlyessay.com.au/essay/2022/06/sleepwalk-to-war

“Gurrumul - Bayini ft. Sarah Blasko” (youtube): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4yDrbbNF89E

“Reimagining and realising our future”, Youth National Security Strategy: https://strategy.ynss.org/

Victor Ferguson, Scott Waldron and Darren Lim, “Market adjustments to import sanctions: lessons from Chinese restrictions on Australian trade, 2020–21”, Review of International Political Economy, 7 July 2022: https://doi.org/10.1080/09692290.2022.2090019

Ep. 98: A (very) busy first few weeks

The new Labor government has begun its term with a whirlwind of activity for Australia in the World. Allan and Darren begin their analysis with the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, where Defence Minister Richard Marles gave his first major speech and met with his Chinese counterpart. Next comes Prime Minister Albanese’s visit to Indonesia, Foreign Minister Penny Wong’s visits to Fiji, Samoa and Tonga, and the episode finishes with Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s controversial disclosures regarding AUKUS negotiations, and news of a financial settlement over the aborted French submarine deal.

We thank Annabel Howard for audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music.

Relevant links

Richard Marles, “Address: IISS 19th Shangri-La Dialogue, Singapore”, 11 June 2022: https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/minister/rmarles/speeches/address-iiss-19th-shangri-la-dialogue-singapore

Richard Marles, “Press conference, IISS Asia Security Summit, Singapore” 12 June 2022: https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/minister/rmarles/transcripts/press-conference-iiss-asia-security-summit-singapore

Remarks at the Shangri-La Dialogue by Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III (As Delivered), 11 June 2022: https://www.defense.gov/News/Speeches/Speech/Article/3059852/remarks-at-the-shangri-la-dialogue-by-secretary-of-defense-lloyd-j-austin-iii-a/

“China will fight to the very end to stop Taiwan independence: Defence minister | Shangri-La Dialogue”, General Wei Fenghe speech at Shangri-La Dialogue (video), 12 June 2022: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O_KMS5proso

Anthony Albanese, “Address to Hasanuddin University”, 7 June 2022: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/address-hasanuddin-university

Penny Wong, “Speech to the Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat”, Suva, 26 May 2022: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/speech/speech-pacific-islands-forum-secretariat

Peter Dutton, “Labor must not torpedo crucial submarine plan”, The Australian, 8 June 2022: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/labor-must-not-torpedo-crucial-submarine-plan/news-story/bfe37713892d105203cdca255d86743c

Ep. 97: Incoming government brief, 2022 edition

With Australia's federal election results (mostly) known and a new Prime Minister and Foreign Minister sworn in, Allan and Darren examine the meaning of the election and what lies ahead for Australia in the world. As they first discussed in 2019 (episode 19), it is the practice of all government departments to prepare an “incoming government brief”: a document presented to the new (or returning) minister for each department, for the purpose of providing a descriptive overview of what the department does, and highlighting the most important issues facing that particular portfolio as the new term commences. Allan and Darren offer their own thoughts on these matters in this episode. 

However, the election result itself is significant in its own right, so before discussing the path ahead for the new Labor government of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and the specific challenges facing Foreign Minister Penny Wong, Allan and Darren offer their own analysis of the result - both those factors specific to Australia but also what it might mean in a broader comparative context. 

We thank Dominique Yap for helping out with audio editing today, and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music.

Relevant links

Transcript, Prime Minister and Minister for Foreign Affairs, "Quad Leaders’ Summit; Australia’s relationship with China; Solomon Islands; Russia; Taiwan; AUKUS; climate change", Tokyo, 24 May 2022: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/press-conference-0 

The Jezabels, Ten Year Anniversary Tour: https://thejezabels.com/live/ 

The Girl from the North Country: https://www.northcountry.com.au/ 

Ep. 96: Campaign foreign policy lessons; AUKUS leaks?

With Australia’s federal election to be held this Saturday, Allan and Darren conduct a quick discussion of the role foreign policy has played over the past month during the campaign, and what we can learn regardless of who will form government. Then, to finish, eyebrows are raised in response to reporting detailing secret conversations between very senior Australian and US national security officials regarding AUKUS and the US' need for bipartisan support for the deal within Australia.  

We thank Annabel Howard for research and audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music.

Relevant links

Kishor Napier-Raman, “An oddly civil election debate, before Dutton finds a warship-shaped dead cat”, Crikey, 13 May 2022: https://www.crikey.com.au/2022/05/13/an-oddly-civil-election-debate/

Little Red Podcast, “Kevin Rudd: Is War With China Inevitable?”, 28 April 2022: https://omny.fm/shows/the-little-red-podcast/kevin-rudd-is-war-with-china-inevitable

Nick Bisley, Robyn Eckersley, Shahar Hameiri, Jessica Kirk, George Lawson & Benjamin Zala (2022) For a progressive realism: Australian foreign policy in the 21st century, Australian Journal of International Affairs, 76:2, 138-160: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10357718.2022.2051428

Asia-Pacific Development Diplomacy & Defence Dialogue: https://www.asiapacific4d.com/

Peter Hartcher, “Radioactive: Inside the top-secret AUKUS subs deal”, Sydney Morning Herald, 14 May 2022: https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/radioactive-inside-the-top-secret-aukus-subs-deal-20220510-p5ak7g.html  

Peter Hartcher, “Biden demanded bipartisan support before signing AUKUS. Labor was not told for months”, Sydney Morning Herald, 14 May 2022: https://www.smh.com.au/national/biden-demanded-bipartisan-support-before-signing-aukus-labor-was-not-told-for-months-20220513-p5al9d.html  

Peter Hartcher,  “AUKUS fallout: double-dealing and deception came at a diplomatic cost”, Sydney Morning Herald, 15 May 2022: https://www.smh.com.au/national/aukus-fallout-double-dealing-and-deception-came-at-a-diplomatic-cost-20220513-p5al95.html

Linda Jaivin, The shortest history of China, Black Inc: https://www.blackincbooks.com.au/books/shortest-history-china

Yun Jiang, Rethinking China (video), 8 May 2022: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=462TgDdgEcE

Ezra Klein Show, "What does the ‘post-liberal right’ actually want?", Interview with Patrick Deneen, 13 May 2022: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/13/podcasts/transcript-ezra-klein-interviews-patrick-deneen.html

Pekingology podcast, “Foreign and Security Policymaking in Xi Jinping’s China”, Interview with Suisheng Zhao, 6 May 2022: https://www.csis.org/node/65210

Ep. 95: Solomon Islands and China enter a security pact

Foreign policy has been thrust to the forefront of the Australian election campaign, with the announcement this week that Solomon Islands and China have officially signed a security agreement. Allan and Darren talk through the background, logic, politics and implications of the deal. Their core focus is on Solomon Islands itself – the interests of the government in entering this agreement and the risks, what Australia has done and could in future do to protect its own interests, and what the pact might mean for the region’s security into the future.

We thank Annabel Howard for research and audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music.  

Relevant links

Bill Birtles, Stephen Dziedzic and Evan Wasuka, “China and Solomon Islands sign security pact, Beijing says it is 'not directed at any third party' amid Pacific influence fears”, ABC News, 20 April 2022: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-19/china-and-solomon-islands-sign-security-pact-says-chinese-foreig/101000530

Marise Payne and Zed Seselja, “Statement on Solomon Islands”, 25 March 2022: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/marise-payne/media-release/statement-solomon-islands

Joanne Wallis and Czeslaw Tubilewicz, “Saying China ‘bought’ a military base in the Solomons is simplistic and shows how little Australia understands power in the Pacific”, The Conversation, 25 March 2022: https://theconversation.com/saying-china-bought-a-military-base-in-the-solomons-is-simplistic-and-shows-how-little-australia-understands-power-in-the-pacific-180020

Prime Minister - Transcript - Press Conference - Tonsley, SA, 20 April 2022: https://www.liberal.org.au/latest-news/2022/04/20/prime-minister-transcript-press-conference-tonsley-sa

China Solomon Islands Security Agreement and Blue Pacific InSecurities (Youtube video), 21 April 2022: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IBJjlc5hb2k

David Crowe and Eryk Bagshaw, “China could have Solomon Islands military base within four weeks”, Sydney Morning Herald, 20 April 2022: https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/china-could-have-solomon-islands-military-base-within-four-weeks-20220420-p5aevc.html

Sam and Lawrence Freedman, “Comment is Freed” newsletter: https://samf.substack.com/

Bruno Macaes, “A war of world-building”, The City Journal, 3 April 2022: https://www.city-journal.org/a-war-of-world-building

Ep. 94: Pre-election foreign policy speeches by Morrison and Albanese

Both Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Leader of the Opposition Anthony Albanese delivered pre-election foreign policy speeches this month, and this episode analyses them together.

Relevant links

“An address by PM Scott Morrison”, Lowy Institute, 7 March 2022: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/address-prime-minister-scott-morrison

Scott Morrison, “Virtual address, AFR Business Summit”, 7 March 2022: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/virtual-address-afr-business-summit

“An address by Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese”, Lowy Institute, 10 March 2022: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/address-opposition-leader-anthony-albanese

Graeme Wood, “Absolute power”, The Atlantic, 3 March 2022: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2022/04/mohammed-bin-salman-saudi-arabia-palace-interview/622822/

“American Utopia” (trailer): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lg4hcgtjDPc

David Byrne, “One fine day” (live), Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/track/0mig4WeZbQ9FSxf50Ta9Eo

Ep. 93: The invasion of Ukraine and updating priors

With the world watching in shock at Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Allan and Darren describe how the crisis, and in particular the world’s response, are (and are not) causing them to reconsider their priors about how politics and international affairs works. Allan describes how impressed he has been with Europe’s response, while Darren is completely surprised at the speed and magnitude of the economic and financial sanctions imposed on Russia, in particular its central bank. Meanwhile, Allan reflects on the contingency of the Biden presidency, wondering how things would have been different had Donald Trump been president and what that says about the variability of the United States as a factor in world politics. Darren considers the responses of regional powers such as China, India and the ASEAN countries. Finally, they discuss early implications for Australia.

Relevant links

Anne Applebaum, “The impossible suddenly became possible”, The Atlantic, 2 March 2022: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/putins-war-dispelled-the-worlds-illusions/623335/

China Talk (podcast), “The new old cold war with Tooze and Klein”, 1 March 2022: https://chinatalk.substack.com/p/the-new-old-cold-war-with-tooze-and?s=r

Adam Tooze, “Chartbook #89 Russia’s financial meltdown and the global dollar system”, 28 February 2022: https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-89-russias-financial-meltdown?s=r

Robert Keohane and Joseph Nye (1987) “Power and interdependence revisited”, International Organization 41(4): 725-753. http://www.rochelleterman.com/ir/sites/default/files/Keohane%20Nye%201987.pdf

Patrick McKenzie, “Moving money internationally”, Bits about money (newsletter), 2 March 2022: https://bam.kalzumeus.com/archive/moving-money-internationally/

Paul Kelly, “Morrison’s Mission: A Lowy Institute Paper”, Penguin Specials, February 2022: https://www.penguin.com.au/books/morrisons-mission-a-lowy-institute-paper-penguin-special-9780143778042

The Ezra Klein Show, “Can the West stop Russia by strangling its economy (with Adam Tooze), 1 March 2022: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/01/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-adam-tooze.html

Ep. 92: Our own foreign policy election “debate”

Australia will have a federal election in a few months, but Allan and Darren are sceptical that substantive foreign policy debates will feature during the campaign. Accordingly, this episode they decide to have their own debate to try to help listeners think through some of the important issues that will (probably) be ignored. They consider four central questions that will shape the future of Australia in the world, and try to offer their best arguments for and against each proposition.

The questions are:

1. Assuming a fixed funding envelope containing defence and foreign policy, Australia should shift resources and attention from the defence portfolio into foreign affairs.
2. Australia needs a “reset” in its relations with Beijing and Canberra should be the one to initiate concessions. The specific proposal is that the Australian government adopt a policy of not commenting on China-specific human rights issues – Xinjiang, Tibet, and other domestic repressions.
3. AUKUS, a scaled up 5 Eyes, and the Quad form the fundamentals of a new Australian architecture for engaging the world, and should be given priority over multilateralism.
4. Assuming a fixed funding envelope, foreign policy resources should be shifted away from the South Pacific and into Southeast Asia.

Most importantly, Allan and Darren do not necessarily offer their own views on the individual questions, but the best argument each can muster, whether it coincides with their opinions or not. Moreover, they deliberately swap sides across the questions and probably contradict themselves in the process. So, please, no quoting us out of context!

The questions are framed in terms of concrete policy agendas where there could, in principle at least, be coherent and substantive disagreement. The questions avoid “more” propositions that posit “we need to do more” or “we need to spend more” since, by themselves, such propositions do not acknowledge the trade-offs. The questions also concern issues that relate as much as possible to the foreign and defence policy realms, and are not intimately linked with domestic issues that would unavoidably shape the debate. This means two major omissions – climate change and border protection.

Once the ‘formal’ debate is over, Allan and Darren conclude by discussing the underlying themes that tie the questions together and which likely shape one’s perspective on Australia in the world.

We bid farewell to Mitchell McIntosh and give our most heartfelt thanks for his contributions to making the podcast a success. We welcome Annabel Howard, and thank her for her help this week. Thanks also to Rory Stenning for composing our theme music.

Relevant links

James Wise, “The Costs of Discounted Diplomacy” ASPI Strategic Insights Report #168, February 2022: https://www.aspi.org.au/report/costs-discounted-diplomacy

Asia-Pacific Development, Diplomacy & Defence Dialogue, Australia and Southeast
Asia: Shaping a Shared Future (Canberra 2022): www.asiapacific4d.com

Ian Bremmer, “The Technopolar Moment: How Digital Powers Will Reshape the Global Order”, Foreign Affairs, November/ December 2021: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2021-10-19/ian-bremmer-big-tech-global-order