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A discussion of the most important news and issues in international affairs through a uniquely Australian lens. Hosted by Darren Lim, in memory of Allan Gyngell.
Episodes
Tuesday Oct 26, 2021
Tuesday Oct 26, 2021
In a double episode recorded on Thursday 14 October, Allan and Darren welcome the ANU National Security College's Heather Smith and Katherine Mansted to talk about the future. The basis of their discussion is the publication “Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World”, which was released by the US National Intelligence Council in March. This is the 7th edition of Global Trends, which has been published every four years since 1997. As explained in the document’s Foreword:
“Global Trends is designed to provide an analytic framework for policymakers early in each administration as they craft national security strategy and navigate an uncertain future. The goal is not to offer a specific prediction of the world in 2040; instead, our intent is to help policymakers and citizens see what may lie beyond the horizon and prepare for an array of possible futures”.
Part 1 begins with Allan and Heather describing the context for Global Trends and why it is a worthwhile exercise, while Katherine and Darren offer initial thoughts from the perspective of those outside of government on what the publication represents and how they would go about doing a equivalent futures exercise themselves.
The report has three sections--“Structural Forces”, “Emerging Dynamics” and “Future Scenarios”--which are used to organise the rest of the conversation. The remainder of Part 1 covers four “Structural Forces”: demographics and human development, environment, economics and technology. These were identified by the authors on the basis that they will be foundational in shaping future dynamics and are relatively universal in scope, while also having sufficient data available now to make projections with some confidence. Heather tackles demographics and economics, Katherine addresses technology and Darren offers some thoughts on the environment.
In Part 2 to come, the conversation will turn to the second and third sections of the report: “emerging dynamics” and “future scenarios”.
Heather Smith is a Professor at the ANU’s National Security College, following a distinguished career in the Australian public service including serving as Deputy Director-General of ONA, Deputy Secretary of DFAT, and Secretary of the Departments of Communications and of Industry, Innovation and Science.
Katherine Mansted is a Senior Fellow in the Practice of National Security at the ANU’s National Security College, and also the Director of Cyber Intelligence at CyberCX.
We thank Mitchell McIntosh for his help with audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music.
Relevant links
“Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World”, a publication of the National Intelligence Council, March 2021: https://www.dni.gov/index.php/gt2040-home
Friday Oct 08, 2021
Friday Oct 08, 2021
This week Allan and Darren begin by resuming their discussion of AUKUS. With the decision now a few weeks old, have their minds changed? How are they seeing the debate evolving? What have been some of the more interesting contributions? For Darren, interventions by former Prime Ministers Malcolm Turnbull and Paul Keating are particularly notable, and Allan has plenty to say on both.
Second, the two turn to the first in-person leaders meeting of the Quad. What is its significance? What should one make of the (over 2000 word) communique? Are things headed in a positive direction? Third, an area where both agree US leadership has been lacking is in trade, which makes China’s application to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) all the more interesting. Is this a serious application? How should Canberra approach it, given the ongoing campaign of economic coercion? Meanwhile, the United States Trade Representative (USTR) Katherine Tai gave a speech on US-China relations this week—does that offer clues as to the Biden administration’s plans for China, or economic leadership generally in the region? Finally, with Beijing upping its aerial incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ), both Allan and Darren offer some preliminary comments on what will certainly remain an issue in the months and years ahead.
We thank Mitchell McIntosh for audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music.
Relevant links
Stephen Dziedzic (@stephendziedzic ; Twitter) on FM Payne’s response to criticism on AUKUS, 1 October 2021: https://twitter.com/stephendziedzic/status/1443864244152274948
Deep State Radio (Podcast), “Biden’s multi-tiered China policy is a far cry from Trump’s”, 4 October 2021: https://thedsrnetwork.com/bidens-multi-tiered-china-policy-is-a-far-cry-from-trumps/
Zachary Basu and Jonathan Swan, “Inside Biden's full-court press with France”, Axios, 6 October 2021: https://www.axios.com/biden-make-amends-france-macron-8db93b4c-39a3-458b-8216-02dfd0a8f03f.html
Malcolm Turnbull, Address to the National Press Club, 29 September 2021: https://www.malcolmturnbull.com.au/media/address-to-the-national-press-club-september-2021
Paul Keating, “A relic of a bygone age? I might be, but I’m not a defeatist”, Sydney Morning Herald, 29 September 2021: https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/a-relic-of-a-bygone-age-i-might-be-but-i-m-not-a-defeatist-20210928-p58vdu.html
Peter Khalil, “Why my hero Keating is wrong on China and our national security”, Sydney Morning Herald, 23 September 2021: https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/why-my-hero-keating-is-wrong-on-china-and-our-national-security-20210922-p58twd.html
Paul Keating, “China’s responsibilities”, Speech to the 21st Century Council, Beijing, 3 November 2013: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/paul-keating-chinas-responsibilities
Quad Leaders' Summit Communique, 24 September 2021: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/quad-leaders-summit-communique
Fact Sheet: Quad Leaders’ Summit, The White House, 24 September 2021: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/09/24/fact-sheet-quad-leaders-summit/
“Australia to oppose China’s bid to join trade pact until it halts strikes against exports”, The Guardian, 18 September 2021: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/sep/18/australia-to-oppose-chinas-bid-to-join-trade-pact-until-it-halts-strikes-against-exports
“A Conversation with Ambassador Katherine Tai, U.S. Trade Representative”, Center for Strategic and International Studies, 4 October 2021: https://www.csis.org/analysis/conversation-ambassador-katherine-tai-us-trade-representative
“9/11 Inside the President’s War Room” (TV Show): https://www.apple.com/au/tv-pr/originals/911-inside-the-presidents-war-room/
Amia Srinivasan, “Does anyone have the right to sex?”, London Review of Books, 22 March 2018: https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v40/n06/amia-srinivasan/does-anyone-have-the-right-to-sex
Lidija Haas, “A Woman and a Philosopher: An Interview with Amia Srinivasan”, The Paris Review, 22 September 2021: https://www.theparisreview.org/blog/2021/09/22/a-woman-and-a-philosopher-an-interview-with-amia-srinivasan/
Conversations with Tyler (podcast), “Amia Srinivasan on utopian feminism”, 22 September 2021: https://conversationswithtyler.com/episodes/amia-srinivasan/
Wednesday Sep 22, 2021
Wednesday Sep 22, 2021
The announcement of a new trilateral security partnership, AUKUS (Australia, UK and US), is a major event in the history of Australian foreign policy. Australia is planning to acquire nuclear-powered submarines, scrapping a contract with the French to build conventional subs in the process. AUKUS also plans to engage in new forms of security cooperation in other technology domains. This decision is both momentous and controversial.
In this episode, Allan and Darren debate the merits of AUKUS, with Darren attempting to lay out a (theoretical) case in favour, while Allan offers his critique. The conversation is the strongest disagreement they’ve had in the history of the podcast, which makes for a lively debate! Hopefully the first of many in the months ahead as further details emerge and implementation begins.
The logic and consequences of AUKUS speak to the biggest questions of Australian foreign policy, and this discussion helps reveal clear points of disagreement in how Allan and Darren assess Australia’s strategic landscape.
We thank Mitchell McIntosh for audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music.
Relevant links
Joint Leaders Statement on AUKUS, 16 September 2021: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/joint-leaders-statement-aukus
Allan Gyngell, “Australia signs up to the Anglosphere”, Australian Financial Review, 17 September 2021: https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/australia-signs-up-to-the-anglosphere-20210916-p58s3x
Natasha Kassam and Darren Lim, “Successful deterrence: Why AUKUS is good news for Taiwan”, The Sydney Morning Herald, 19 September 2021: https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/successful-deterrence-why-aukus-is-good-news-for-taiwan-20210918-p58su7.html
William Gale and Darrell West, “Is the US headed for another Civil War?”, Brookings Institution, 16 September 2021: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2021/09/16/is-the-us-headed-for-another-civil-war/
Hugh White, How to defend Australia (La Trobe University Press, 2019): https://www.blackincbooks.com.au/books/how-defend-australia
Oriana Skylar Mastro, “The Taiwan Temptation: Why Beijing Might Resort to Force”, Foreign Affairs, July/August 2021: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2021-06-03/china-taiwan-war-temptation
Rory Medcalf, “Australia crosses a strategic Rubicon”, Australian Financial Review, 16 September 2021: https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/australia-crosses-a-strategic-rubicon-20210916-p58s2y
Editorial Board, “What to make of China’s drive towards ‘common prosperity’”, East Asia Forum, 20 September 2021: https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2021/09/20/what-to-make-of-chinas-drive-towards-common-prosperity/
Kevin Rudd, “Xi Jinping’s pivot to the state”, Address to the Asia Society, New York, 8 September 2021: https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/xi-jinpings-pivot-state
Sinica Podcast, “What’s the deal with the Red New Deal?”, 16 September 2021: https://supchina.com/podcast/whats-the-deal-with-the-red-new-deal/
The Ezra Klein Show, Interview with Annie Murphy Paul, New York Times, 20 July 2021: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/20/podcasts/transcript-ezra-klein-interviews-annie-murphy-paul.html
The Ezra Klein Show, Interview with L.M. Sacasas, New York Times, 3 August 2021: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/03/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-lm-sacasas.html
Friday Sep 10, 2021
Friday Sep 10, 2021
Allan and Darren begin this episode reviewing the frenzied two-week evacuation from Afghanistan. A logistical success or further evidence of a terrible failure? Do the events of the evacuation, which included an ISIS-K suicide bombing and a drone strike that killed civilians, in addition to the over 100,000 evacuated, change their assessment of the merits of withdrawal? What are Australia’s obligations into the future? What will China’s role be?
The Australia-US alliance celebrates its 70th anniversary this week. Having recently updated his book on the history Australian foreign policy, Fear of Abandonment, how is Allan thinking about the role the alliance should be playing in Australian foreign policy today? Darren tries to inject some needed (in his view) international relations theory into public debates on the merits of the alliance. Moreover, Darren (along with co-authors Zack Cooper and Ashley Feng) has published a new report for the United States Studies Centre on the topic of geoeconomics and the alliance, and he explains its motivation and previews the argument. Allan wonders whether we need to hear more from the economics discipline in geoeconomic policy discussions, given that the stakes extend well beyond Australia’s current focus—China’s economic coercion. Darren notes that recent speeches from Treasurer Josh Frydenberg and Defence Minister Peter Dutton highlight how economics and security are more deeply intertwined than ever.
Given a spate of recent bilateral meetings and a big international trip now underway for the Foreign and Defence Ministers, Allan and Darren discuss Australia’s diplomatic objectives for the rest of the year. Finally, on the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, they each reflect on their personal memories of the event and what its enduring significance is for Australia in the world.
We thank Mitchell McIntosh for audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music.
Relevant links
Ezra Klein, “Let’s Not Pretend That the Way We Withdrew From Afghanistan Was the Problem”, New York Times, 26 August 2021: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/26/opinion/afghanistan-us-withdrawal.html
“Joint Statement on Afghanistan Evacuation Travel Assurances”, 30 August 2021: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/marise-payne/media-release/joint-statement-afghanistan-evacuation-travel-assurances
Marise Payne, “Transcript Statement to the Senate: Afghanistan”, 23 August 2021: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/marise-payne/transcript/transcript-statement-senate-afghanistan
Simon Jackman, “At 70, most see US alliance as foundation of our security”, United States Studies Centre, 30 August 2021: https://www.ussc.edu.au/analysis/at-70-most-see-us-alliance-as-foundation-of-our-security
UPCOMING EVENT, “Fear of Abandonment: Australia in the World - an update”, Australian Institute of International Affairs, 23 September 2021: https://aiia.tidyhq.com/public/schedule/events/37184-fear-of-abandonment-australia-in-the-world-an-update
Darren Lim, Zack Cooper and Ashley Feng, “Trust and diversify: A geoeconomic strategy for the Australia-US alliance”, United States Studies Centre, 2 September 2021: https://www.ussc.edu.au/analysis/trust-and-diversify-a-geoeconomic-strategy-for-the-australia-us-alliance
Josh Frydenberg, “Building Resilience and the Return of Strategic Competition”, Keynote Address to the ANU Crawford Leadership Forum, 6 September 2021: https://joshfrydenberg.com.au/latest-news/building-resilience-and-the-return-of-strategic-competition/
Peter Dutton, “Address to the American Chamber of Commerce in Australia”, 8 September 2021: https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/minister/peter-dutton/speeches/address-american-chamber-commerce-australia
Marise Payne and Peter Dutton, “Joint visit to Indonesia, India, the Republic of Korea, and the United States”, Joint Media Release, 8 September 2021: https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/minister/peter-dutton/media-releases/joint-visit-indonesia-india-republic-korea-and-united-states
Benjamin Herscovitch, “Australia’s growing anti-coercion coalition”, Beijing to Canberra and Bank (Newsletter), 30 August 2021: https://beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/australias-growing-anti-coercion
Rebecca Ananian-Welsh and Keiran Hardy, “Before 9/11, Australia had no counter-terrorism laws, now we have 92 — but are we safer?”, The Conversation, 8 September 2021: https://theconversation.com/before-9-11-australia-had-no-counter-terrorism-laws-now-we-have-92-but-are-we-safer-166273
“The Overstory” by Richard Powers, Penguin Australia: https://www.penguin.com.au/books/the-overstory-9781784708245
Saturday Aug 28, 2021
Saturday Aug 28, 2021
This second half of the discussion begins with Australia-Indonesia relations. How does Indonesia see Australia? How much do the views expressed by President Widodo in a speech to the Australian Parliament reflect broader opinions among Indonesia’s elite? Darren chimes in with a ‘cheeky’ question about the Australian public’s attitudes towards Indonesia—would it be preferable for the bilateral relationship to be as high profile in the media and public consciousness as that with China or the United States? And how can Australia increase its engagement with Indonesia? Is a “step up”—our approach in the South Pacific—the correct frame?
The conversation turns outward. Allan asks Gary what he has concluded about ASEAN’s capability “to carry the weight the rest of the world is putting on it”. And specifically, has the regional organisation’s performance during the recent and ongoing Myanmar crisis surprised him? Allan then highlights a recent monograph published by the AIIA and authored by Michael Bliss, and for which Gary wrote the Afterword, about Australia’s most recent term of the UN Security Council and our legacy. What is Gary’s advice to the Australian government about how we can best contribute to the continuation of an effective multilateral system?
Finally, Darren ends by asking Gary to reflect upon his entire career by asking whether there are any distinctively Australian characteristics that cause success or failure in Australian foreign policy.
We thank Mitchell McIntosh for his help with research and audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music.
Relevant links
Joko Widodo, “Address by the President of the Republic of Indonesia”, Parliament of Australia, 10 February 2020: https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Hansard/Hansard_Display?bid=chamber/hansardr/be8a2537-4a84-4dc2-b27b-28f392b06329/&sid=0000
Michael Bliss (Afterword by Gary Quinlan), An Enduring Contribution? Australia's Term on the United Nations Security Council (2013-2014), Australian Institute of International Affairs, Diplomatic History Series | 2, Canberra, 2021: https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/publication/an-enduring-contribution-australias-term-on-the-united-nations-security-council-2013-2014/
Thursday Aug 26, 2021
Thursday Aug 26, 2021
In a conversation recorded on Thursday 5 August, Allan and Darren welcome Gary Quinlan to the podcast. Gary’s career in Australian foreign policy can only be described as stellar, having worked at the top of each of its three pillars: the region, the alliance, and the rules-based order. Gary joined DFAT in 1973 and, until his recent retirement, held one of Australia’s most senior diplomatic appointments as Ambassador to Indonesia from 2018 until April 2021. From 2009, as our permanent representative to the UN, Gary presided over Australia’s successful campaign for election to the UN Security Council and our term in office, twice taking his place as president of the Council. He served as Prime Minister Rudd’s senior adviser on foreign affairs, defence and national security. His first head of mission posting was as High Commissioner in Singapore in 2001.
Allan begins the conversation by observing that, for pandemic-related reasons, Gary spent months of his time as Ambassador to Indonesia living in Canberra. How did that work? Did it work? Will diplomacy as a profession change as a result of the world's experience with COVID-19?
The conversation turns to Indonesia. How do Indonesians think about the world and Indonesia’s place in it? Is this question contested or is there a strong consensus? How polarised is Indonesian politics and how are cleavages managed? What can be learned from the fascinating career trajectories of two controversial figures, the former Governor of Jakarta Basuki Tjahaja Purnama (known as Ahok), and Prabowo Subianto, the current Defense Minister? To what extent does Islam, and the politics of Islam, shape Indonesian foreign policy?
Part 1 concludes with a discussion of Indonesia’s views of, and relations with, the two major powers. What are the politics of China inside the country, and what is the trend-line of Indonesia-China relations? How would the Indonesians rate the Biden administration's performance so far, and what do they want from the US?
In Part 2, the conversation will cover Australia-Indonesia relations as well as ASEAN and the future of multilateralism.
We thank Mitchell McIntosh for his help with research and audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music.
Relevant links
Gary Quinlan AO, short biography: https://australiaindonesiacentre.org/network/his-excellency-gary-quinlan-ao/
Wednesday Aug 18, 2021
Wednesday Aug 18, 2021
On Sunday the 15th August the Taliban took control of Kabul, capping an astonishingly rapid takeover of Afghanistan. In this emergency episode, Allan and Darren try to make sense of these events, analytically but also on a more personal level. How could this have happened? Was it true that the United States faced a simple choice between getting out or staying forever? What are the implications for Joe Biden’s legacy, and America’s standing in the world? And what is the Australian angle here?
Many thanks to Dominique Yap for audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music.
Relevant links
Paul Miller, “What really went wrong in Afghanistan”, The Dispatch, 29 January 2020: https://thedispatch.com/p/what-really-went-wrong-in-afghanistan
Craig Whitlock, “At war with the truth” (Afghanistan Papers”), Washington Post, 9 December 2019: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/investigations/afghanistan-papers/afghanistan-war-confidential-documents/
Remarks by President Biden on the Drawdown of U.S. Forces in Afghanistan, The White House, 8 July 2021: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/07/08/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-drawdown-of-u-s-forces-in-afghanistan/
Gideon Rachman, “Joe Biden’s credibility has been shredded in Afghanistan”, Financial Times, 13 August 2021: https://amp.ft.com/content/71629b28-f730-431a-b8da-a2d45387a0c2
Daniel Drezner, “Afghanistan’s effect on American foreign policy”, Washington Post, 15 August 2021: https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/08/15/afghanistans-effect-american-foreign-policy/
ABC News Sunday (NSW), 15 August 2021: https://iview.abc.net.au/video/NU2132H033S00
Scott Morrison, “Interview with Lisa Millar, ABC News Breakfast”, Transcript, 16 August 2021: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/interview-lisa-millar-abc-news-breakfast
Marise Payne, “ABC Radio National – AM with Sabra Lane”, Transcript, 17 August 2021: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/marise-payne/transcript/abc-radio-national-am-sabra-lane
List of Afghan charities: https://afghanistanrelief.carrd.co/ (see also this tweet thread from Elsa Kania (@EBKania) https://twitter.com/EBKania/status/1426677508431355912 )
Saturday Jul 24, 2021
Saturday Jul 24, 2021
Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade has a new Secretary, Kathryn Campbell. Darren uses the occasion to build a theoretical model of the position, positing that the ideal candidate would fulfil four roles: administrator, consigliere, strategist and diplomat. Allan points out that the “diplomat” skill-set is unique to DFAT, discussing the history of the position not just in Australia but internationally, and some of the novel challenges every DFAT secretary will face.
The two next turn their attention to a pair of recent cyber stories: the attribution to China by a broad coalition of western governments of the massive and indiscriminate hack of Microsoft’s Exchange server earlier this year, and investigative reporting that surveillance software sold by the Israeli company NSO is being used to monitor thousands of individuals, from political and business leaders to journalists and activists. Is it possible to develop norms in this domain, especially given how extensively the US conducts its own spying? What is different (if anything) about these events, and can a rules-based order that regulates this behaviour be built?
As the podcast wraps up, Allan briefly discusses the recent APEC extraordinary meeting, the first of its kind for the organisation. Can the vigour of hosts New Zealand breathe new life into a troubled organisation? Finally, exclusive reporting by the ABC suggests the Australian government is considering returning a presence to Afghanistan, which would represent a rapid reversal of the decision to close the embassy indefinitely just a few months ago. Why?
We thank Mitchell McIntosh for audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music.
Relevant links
MArise Payne and Zed Seselja, “Kathryn Campbell AO CSC announced as new DFAT Secretary”, Media Release, 9 July 2021: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/marise-payne/media-release/kathryn-campbell-ao-csc-announced-new-dfat-secretary
Dave Sharma, “A diplomatic step-up to match our military step-up”, Lowy Interpreter, 13 July 2020: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/diplomatic-step-match-our-military-step
Alex Oliver, “A budget of skewed priorities”, Lowy Interpreter, 7 October 2020: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/budget-of-skewed-priorities
Marise Payne, Karen Andrews and Peter Dutton, “Australia joins international partners in attribution of malicious cyber activity to China”, Media Release, 19 July 2021: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/marise-payne/media-release/australia-joins-international-partners-attribution-malicious-cyber-activity-china
Zolan Kanno-Youngs and David E. Sanger, “U.S. Accuses China of Hacking Microsoft”, The New York Times, 19 July 2021: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/19/us/politics/microsoft-hacking-china-biden.html
“Chinese Embassy Spokesperson's Responding to the Australian Side's Remarks on Cyber Issues”, Media Release, 20 July 2021: http://au.china-embassy.org/eng/sghdxwfb_1/t1893534.htm
Andy Greenberg, “How China’s Hacking Entered a Reckless New Phase”, Wired, 19 July 2021: https://www.wired.com/story/china-hacking-reckless-new-phase/
International Institute for Strategic Studies, “Cyber Capabilities and National Power: A Net Assessment”, Researhc Paper, 29 June 2021: https://www.iiss.org/blogs/research-paper/2021/06/cyber-capabilities-national-power
Dana Priest, Craig Timberg and Souad Mekhennet, “ Private Israeli spyware used to hack cellphones of journalists, activists worldwide”, Washington Post, 18 July 2021: https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/interactive/2021/nso-spyware-pegasus-cellphones/
Scott Morrison, APEC Virtual Informal Leaders’ Meeting, Transcript, 17 July 2021: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/apec-virtual-informal-leaders-meeting
Andrew Probyn, “Australia considering future return to Afghanistan to monitor Taliban resurgence”, ABC News, 20 July 2021: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-20/australia-considering-return-afghanistan-monitor-taliban/100305336
The Rachman Review (podcast), “Coming to terms with Putin’s Russia”, 24 June 2021: https://www.ft.com/content/842e9410-d0df-4d11-bd07-bb319a2dd30f
National Security Podcast, “Tim Watts MP on national identity and cyber literacy in Australia”, 8 July 2021: https://www.policyforum.net/national-security-podcast-tim-watts-mp-on-national-identity-and-cyber-literacy-in-australia/
Loki (TV show): https://disneyplusoriginals.disney.com/show/loki
Friday Jul 02, 2021
Friday Jul 02, 2021
In an episode recorded on 24 June, Allan and Darren take a step back from the news to discuss an emerging theme in international affairs: the competition of systems, which arrays liberal democracies against various types of authoritarianism, with the China model most prominent. President Biden has made both restoring American democracy, and cooperation with likeminded democracies, core pillars of his foreign policy.
Allan and Darren compare and contrast Biden’s approach with the neoconservative vision from the early 2000s. What is notable is his inward focus on restoring the health of American democracy, which they agree is a necessary starting point. But what then does a “competition of systems” actually entail? Darren tries to articulate a concrete theory of the case, which leads into a longer discussion of the differences between foreign policy, diplomacy and grand strategy, and the extent to which the world has changed since the Treaties of Westphalia in 1648!
While it’s clear demonstrating the continuing success of democratic models is essential to western leadership of the international order, can democracy be an organising principle of international cooperation? Should the trajectory of other political systems be a matter of direct national interest? Is there a concrete policy agenda that does not collapse into the flawed neoconservative approach or complete hypocrisy? What does one do about “illiberal democracies” or “elected autocracies”? And where does Australia, and PM Morrison’s call for a “world order that favours freedom”, fit in?
As always, we invite our listeners to email us at this address: australia.world.pod [at] gmail.com We welcome feedback, requests and suggestions. You can also contact Darren on twitter @limdarrenj
We thank AIIA intern Dominique Yap for her help and bid her a fond farewell. We also thank Rory Stenning for composing our theme music.
Relevant links
White House, “Interim National Security Strategic Guidance”, 3 March 2021: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/03/03/interim-national-security-strategic-guidance/
Lowy Institute Poll 2021: https://poll.lowyinstitute.org/
C. Lee Shea, “The longest telegram: A visionary blueprint for the comprehensive grand strategy against China we need”, War on the Rocks, 1 April 2021: https://warontherocks.com/2021/04/the-longest-telegram-a-visionary-blueprint-for-the-comprehensive-grand-strategy-against-china-we-need/
Frances Adamson, National Press Club Address, 23 June 2021: https://www.dfat.gov.au/news/speech/national-press-club-address
LDC Podcast, “Working From home”, 15 June 2021: https://longdistancecall.com.au/episodes/episode165
Saturday Jun 19, 2021
Saturday Jun 19, 2021
This week’s episode tracks PM Scott Morrison’s recent travels. We begin in Perth prior to his leaving the country with what Allan considers to be a major foreign policy speech. Why? Where Allan sees a definite break from decades of Australian foreign policy, Darren sees a speech responding to shifting political winds, especially with a new occupant in the White House.
From Perth the PM flew to Singapore to meet with his counterpart PM Lee Hsien Loong. Lee offered some advice to Australia in its management of relations with China, which Allan wonders might signal a growing gap between Australia and Southeast Asia. Meanwhile, Darren tries to reconcile Lee’s advice with comments made that same week by Defence Minister Peter Dutton.
The PM then arrived in the UK for the G7 summit. Was it important that he was invited? And what did Allan and Darren make of the communique? What is most interesting perhaps is the apparent return to prominence of the G7, which had for more than a decade taken a backseat to the G20. As Allan says, this is likely because of who is not at the meeting, rather than who is. Scott Morrison then wrapped up his trip with the announcement of a free trade agreement with the UK (did it deliver much?) and getting solid support from President Macron in his bilateral with the French leader.
As always, we invite our listeners to email us at this address: australia.world.pod [at] gmail.com We welcome feedback, requests and suggestions. You can also contact Darren on twitter @limdarrenj
We thank AIIA intern Dominique Yap for her help audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music.
Relevant links
Scott Morrison, “Address to the Perth USAsia Centre”, Perth, 9 June 2021: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/address-perth-usasia-centre-perth-wa
Daniel Hurst, “Peter Dutton flags more US troops on Australian soil citing potential China conflict”, The Guardian, 10 June 2021: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jun/10/peter-dutton-flags-more-us-troops-on-australian-soil-citing-potential-china-conflict
Scott Morrison and Lee Hsien Loong, Press Conference Transcript, The Istana, Singapore, 11 June 2021: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/press-conference-istana-singapore
2021 G7 Leaders' communiqué: Our shared agenda for global action to build back better, 13 June 2021: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2021/06/13/2021-g7-leaders-communique/
Fact Sheet: President Biden and G7 Leaders Launch Build Back Better World (B3W) Partnership, The White House, 12 June 2021: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/06/12/fact-sheet-president-biden-and-g7-leaders-launch-build-back-better-world-b3w-partnership/
“G7 summit: China says small groups do not rule the world”, BBC News, 13 June 2021: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-57458822
Jeff Wilson (@JDWilson08), twitter thread on the Australia-UK free trade agreement, 16 June 2021: https://twitter.com/JDWilson08/status/1404958048561496070
Andrew Tillett, “UK trade deal ‘rights a historic wrong’”, Australian Financial Review, 16 June 2021: https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/uk-trade-deal-rights-a-historic-wrong-20210616-p581ey
Martin Wolf, “The US should spurn the false promise of protectionism”, Financial Times, 15 June 2021: https://www.ft.com/content/4edc2c5a-298f-4edd-81b7-5b94b7b23b93
“French President Emmanuel Macron backs Australia amid trade conflict with China”, ABC News, 16 June 2021: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-16/french-president-emmanuel-macron-support-china-australia-trade/100220484
“Ninth Japan-Australia 2+2 Foreign and Defence Ministerial Consultations”, 9 June 2021: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/marise-payne/media-release/ninth-japan-australia-22-foreign-and-defence-ministerial-consultations
Peter Dutton, “Address to Australian Strategic Policy Institute Conference, Canberra”, 10 June 2021: https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/minister/peter-dutton/speeches/address-australian-strategic-policy-institute-conference-canberra
Making Sense podcast, “Are we alone in the universe? A conversation with Neil deGrasse Tyson”, Episode #252, 10 June 2021: https://samharris.org/podcasts/252-alone-universe/
“Jon Stewart On Vaccine Science And The Wuhan Lab Theory”, The Late Show with Stephen Colbert, 15 June 2021: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sSfejgwbDQ8
“‘They Are Going To Kill Us All’ - Jon Stewart Declares His Love For Scientists” (video) The Late Show with Stephen Colbert, 15 June 2021: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jtTvXZ5lby8
Thomas Wright, “Joe Biden worries that China might win”, The Atlantic, 9 June 2021: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2021/06/joe-biden-foreign-policy/619130/
Benjamin Herscovitch, “Beijing to Canberra and Back” (newsletter): https://beijing2canberra.substack.com/